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at forecasting social, political and military trends.
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Short of finding oil under their feet, most Islamic nations are backward and impoverished.
So wherein lies the power source for Islam’s nearly constant expansion over the past fourteen centuries?
Unlike the Jewish and Christian Bibles, the Koran and Hadith appeal not to man’s better angels, but to the darkest aspects of human nature.
(Tellingly, Moses and Jesus are said to have climbed to mountaintops to communicate with their God, while Mohammed received his messages from Allah deep inside a bat cave.) A meaningful or permanent reformation of Islam is impossible, because a new generation of fanatics, wielding the unexpurgated Koran and Hadith as their weapons, will always declare the reformists to be apostates and murder them.
At the end of 2015, I hope that my past success at prognostication will encourage people to pay heed to this essay.